Moray Firth offshore wind · risk and return

Who carries the risk, and what the public gets

Paid for by the public: as electricity billpayers, and as taxpayers standing behind the loans.

The running subsidy meter · How the money works · Money leaving the UK · The missing figures

Revenue per unit delivered

Each farm's total revenue divided by the electricity it generated, from its own filed accounts, set beside its contract priceThe fixed price per unit of electricity that a wind farm is guaranteed under its subsidy contract. more › today. Revenue includes power sales to private buyers and, for Moray East, £87.4m of other income; the levyA charge added to suppliers' costs, which they pass on in bills, to fund things like the Contracts for Difference subsidy. more ›-funded part of Beatrice's figure is £114.85/MWhUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more › (£244.5m of CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › payments ÷ 2,128,900 MWh).

Beatrice £195.88/MWh computed, filed figures Current contract price: £205.70/MWh (22 Sep 2026, indexedA price or allowance that rises each year in line with inflation, so its real value stays roughly constant. more ›)

Arithmetic

£417.0m revenue ÷ 2,128.9 GWh (2,128,900 MWh) generation, year to 31 Mar 2025 = £195.88/MWh.

Moray East £187.07/MWh computed, filed figures Current contract price: £82.34/MWh (22 Sep 2026, indexed; £79.95 from Apr 2025 to Mar 2026)

Arithmetic

£321.411m revenue ÷ 1,718.14 GWh (1,718,140 MWh) generation, year to 31 Dec 2025 = £187.07/MWh. LCCCThe government-owned company that manages and pays out Contracts for Difference, and publishes the daily figures. more ›'s own CfD-eligible generation figure for the same calendar year is 1,633.0 GWh, about 5% lower than the accounts' figure — the two have not been reconciled in the research behind this page.

In 2025 the market reference priceThe average market electricity price used to calculate whether a wind farm is topped up or pays money back. more › averaged about £81/MWh, slightly above the £79.95/MWh strike that applied for most of the year, so the net CfD payment for the year was slightly negative (−£0.94m): on balance money flowed back to billpayersAnyone who pays an electricity bill. Most of the costs on this site are recovered this way, not from taxes. more ›.

Moray West Not computable gap, not a zero Contract prices awarded: £37.35/MWh (AR4One of the periodic government auctions at which Contracts for Difference are awarded to competing projects. more ›) and £54.23/MWh (AR6), 2012 prices, neither yet started

Why

Generation volume (GWh/MWh) is not disclosed in Moray West's FY2024 accounts, so £/MWh cannot be computedLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › from documents held.

Who carries which risk

Risk	Beatrice	Moray East	Moray West	Caledonia	SSEN Transmission
Price	Public (billpayersAnyone who pays an electricity bill. Most of the costs on this site are recovered this way, not from taxes. more ›) – two-way contractA subsidy contract that pays the generator when prices are low and takes money back when prices are high. more ›: the farm receives a fixedLabels on the evidence register showing whether a figure's source was checked and confirmed, corrected, missing, or wrong. more › price per MWhUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more ›; billpayers pay or receive the difference from the market price	Public (billpayers) – two-way contract, same mechanism; in 2025 the market price averaged just above the strike, so the net payment for the year was a small amount back to billpayers	Investor – full market-price exposure until its CfDsA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › start (2027/2028)	Not established – no CfD secured yet	Public (billpayers) – regulated allowedThe profit margin Ofgem lets a regulated grid company earn on shareholders' money, built into billpayers' charges. more › revenue, not a per-unit price sold to the public
Volume (wind)	Investor – paid per MWh actually generated	Investor – paid per MWh actually generated	Investor – paid per MWh actually generated	Not established – no generation yet	Public (billpayers) – OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more ›'s volume-driverAn Ofgem mechanism that adjusts a grid company's allowed income if the amount of generation or demand connected changes. more › mechanism flexes SHET's allowed revenue with connection volumes, within a threshold
CurtailmentMoney paid to a generator to switch off, or reduce output, because the grid cannot carry all the power it is producing. more ›	Not established – no per-farm figure found; not named among the largest-curtailed in sources checked	Public (billpayers) – named among the most-curtailed Scottish wind farms; constraint payments are funded by billpayers via NESOThe National Energy System Operator, the body that keeps Great Britain's electricity grid balanced minute by minute. more › balancing costsWhat the system operator spends keeping electricity supply and demand matched second by second, including constraint payments. more ›	Public (billpayers) – reported in press aggregations among the most-curtailed Scottish wind farms (not verified against a local copy), same mechanism	Not established – no generation yet	Not established – not researched for this entity
Construction overrun	Investor – generating under its contract since November 2018, risk already resolved; CfD milestoneDeadlines in a subsidy contract: missing a milestone can trigger penalties, and missing the final longstop date can end the contract. more ›/longstop rules put overrun risk on the generator generally	Investor – operational, risk already resolved	Investor – its accounts record minor delays and an anticipated increase in costs from vessel and vendor delays during construction	Not established – not yet under construction	Shared – Ofgem's Totex Incentive MechanismAn Ofgem rule that splits unexpected cost overruns or savings on a project between the company and billpayers. more › splits cost-risk exposure between investors and consumers; Ofgem has also raised its detailed-scrutiny threshold from £100m to £300m, relying more on the company's own assurance
Financing	Investor – project-financeBorrowing raised against the future income of a specific project, repaid from that project's own cash flow rather than the parent company's wider finances. more › bank debt (13 banks plus EIBThe European Investment Bank, a lender to some of the Moray Firth wind farm financing syndicates. more ›), Danish EKF guarantee on part of it (the 2016 construction financing; the debt was refinanced in July 2019 and the current lenders are not named in a local source)	Investor – JBICJapan's state development bank, which lent directly to Moray East's construction financing. more › plus commercial-bank syndicate, Danish EKF guarantee on part of it	Investor – 18-bank syndicate, plus a growing capitalisedInterest added to the recorded cost of a project under construction, rather than paid out in cash straight away. more › shareholder-loanMoney a company's own owners lend to it, on which the company pays interest back to them, separate from bank debt. more › and guarantee-fee component	Investor – wholly funded by an intercompany/shareholder loan from its parent; no third-party bank debt	Public (taxpayers, via guarantee) – £2.0bn of new facilities agreed in FY2025/26, including an £800m UK National Wealth FundA UK government-owned investment body that can guarantee loans to infrastructure projects, backed by taxpayers. more › guarantee (plus Swedish EKNA foreign government body that guarantees loans to help its own country's exporters win contracts abroad. more › and Italian SACE guarantees); none drawnA risk that only turns into an actual cost if something specific happens, such as a loan guarantee only being called on if the borrower defaults. more › at 31 Mar 2026, a contingent not actual exposure
DecommissioningThe legal duty to remove offshore energy infrastructure and restore the site once it stops being used, paid for by the operator. more ›	Investor – Energy Act 2004 "polluter pays" regime; company already accruing a provision	Investor – same statutory regime	Investor – same statutory regime	Investor – same statutory regime, as a future obligation	Not established – out of scope for this report

Classes throughout this page: filed = read directly from the company's or regulator's own document; computed = arithmetic on filed figures, shown in full; allowed = a regulatory allowance, not an outcome; assessment = this report's own reasoning.

Return achieved

Beatrice

Investment ContractAn early, CfD-equivalent support contract given to some wind farms, including Beatrice, before the CfD scheme fully started. more › (CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more ›-equivalent), two-way, strike £140/MWhThe fixed price per unit of electricity that a wind farm is guaranteed under its subsidy contract. more › (2012 prices)

Op. profit marginProfit from a company's core operations, before interest on debt and tax are deducted. more ›: 56.1% of revenue computed
PATA company's profit once tax has been deducted: the amount available to pay dividends or keep in the business. more ›: 33.8% of revenue computed; 64.3% of closing equityProfit after tax shown as a percentage of the shareholders' stake, to measure how well that money has performed. more › computed
DividendsA payment a company makes to its shareholders out of its profits. more ›: £84.1m, 59.7% of PAT computed
Credit ratingAn independent agency's assessment of how likely a borrower is to repay its debts, shown as a letter-and-number grade. more ›: None found for the SPVA Special Purpose Vehicle: a company set up to own and run a single project, keeping its finances separate from its owners. more ›; its 40% shareholder SSE plc Moody's Baa1 / S&P BBB+, both stable filed

Moray East

Three CfDs (AR2One of the periodic government auctions at which Contracts for Difference are awarded to competing projects. more ›), two-way, base strike £57.50/MWhUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more › (2012 prices)

Op. profit margin: 38.3% of revenue computed
PAT: 14.0% of revenue computed; 10.3% of closing equity computed
Dividends: £104.2m, 231% of the year's PAT, funded substantially from reserves computed
Credit rating: None found for the SPV; no group-level rating (consortium, not SSE-led)

Moray West

Merchant exposure until its two CfDs start (2027/2028)

Op. profit margin: 14.5% of revenue computed
PAT: Loss after tax, −41.6% of revenue computed; −35.5% of closing equity computed
Dividends: None paid
Credit rating: None found

Caledonia

Pre-construction/consented; no CfD secured, no revenue

Op. profit margin: Not applicable – no revenue
PAT: Loss £(23)k on negative net assetsA company's total assets minus its total liabilities: what would be left for shareholders if everything were sold and all debts paid. more ›; no return ratio is meaningful filed
Dividends: Not applicable
Credit rating: None; not applicable to a company with no third-party debt

SSEN Transmission (SHET)

Regulated return: OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more › RIIO-T3Ofgem's current five-year price control, which sets how much transmission companies can charge billpayers and what return they earn. more ›, allowed cost of equityThe profit margin Ofgem lets a regulated grid company earn on shareholders' money, built into billpayers' charges. more › 5.70% CPIH-real allowed

Op. profit margin: 63.5% of revenue computed
PAT: 43.0% of revenue computed; 18.5% of closing book equity computed, several times the 5.70% allowed cost of equity – though the research file flags the two figures as not computedLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › on an identical basis (CPIH-real return on Regulatory Asset ValueThe value of a grid company's assets that Ofgem allows it to earn a regulated return on, recovered from billpayers over time. more ›, versus nominal return on statutory book equityThe value of a company's assets minus its liabilities, as recorded in its own accounts: the shareholders' stake on paper. more ›)
Dividends: None paid; profit retained for capex
Credit rating: Moody's Baa1 / S&P BBB+ per SHET's own regulatory filing filed; 'stable' outlook per SSE plc's announcements

Risk rating

These ratings are this site's assessment from the filed figures, not a published credit ratingAn independent agency's assessment of how likely a borrower is to repay its debts, shown as a letter-and-number grade. more ›.

Beatrice – Low assessment

Generating under its contract since November 2018; investor downside is mainly refinancing/interest-rate risk, not volume or price.

Risk carried by the public: billpayersAnyone who pays an electricity bill. Most of the costs on this site are recovered this way, not from taxes. more › already carry the two-way CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › price risk – they can pay out or claw back depending on the market.

Moray East – Low-medium assessment

Operational and contracted, but weaker interest cover than Beatrice, and its £104.2m dividendA payment a company makes to its shareholders out of its profits. more › was funded from reserves rather than the year's earnings.

Risk carried by the public: billpayers already carry the two-way CfD price risk, same as Beatrice.

Moray West – Medium-high assessment

Full market-price exposure today, the highest leverage of the three operating farms, and loss-making after tax.

Risk carried by the public: billpayers carry no CfD risk yet – only the state-guaranteed lending exposure described under SSEN Transmission's financing row applies elsewhere, not to Moray West itself.

Caledonia – Very high assessment

Consented but undeveloped; outcome depends on a future CfD auction clearing at a price the sponsor accepts, and on raising third-party project debt.

Risk carried by the public: none yet – no generation, no billpayer payment of any kind.

SSEN Transmission – Very low assessment

Regulated monopoly revenue, licence-backed cost recovery, an investment-grade rating, and government-guaranteed lending facilities; 25% owned by Ontario Teachers'.

Risk carried by the public: billpayers carry the full regulated-return cost through network charges, and UK taxpayers carry a contingentA risk that only turns into an actual cost if something specific happens, such as a loan guarantee only being called on if the borrower defaults. more ›, undrawn exposure through the £800m National Wealth FundA UK government-owned investment body that can guarantee loans to infrastructure projects, backed by taxpayers. more › guarantee; Sweden's and Italy's export credit agencies stand behind two further £0.5bn facilities.

What is not established

No per-farm curtailmentMoney paid to a generator to switch off, or reduce output, because the grid cannot carry all the power it is producing. more › figures. Constraint/curtailment payments are not available from an openly-fetchable primaryLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › source for any of the four generators; only aggregate, press-sourced estimates exist.
No SPV-levelA Special Purpose Vehicle: a company set up to own and run a single project, keeping its finances separate from its owners. more › credit ratings. SHET carries its own Baa1An independent agency's assessment of how likely a borrower is to repay its debts, shown as a letter-and-number grade. more ›/BBB+ rating; Beatrice's 40% shareholder SSE plc is rated; Moray East, Moray West and Caledonia have no rated company or anchor shareholder in the sources checked.
The 15-year CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › term is not confirmed from a document. LCCCThe government-owned company that manages and pays out Contracts for Difference, and publishes the daily figures. more ›'s portfolio-status dataset gives a start date but no contract-end-date field, so only start dates and indexedA price or allowance that rises each year in line with inflation, so its real value stays roughly constant. more › strike prices are stated as fact.
Moray West's generation volume (MWhUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more ›/GWh) was not foundLabels on the evidence register showing whether a figure's source was checked and confirmed, corrected, missing, or wrong. more › in its FY2024 accounts, so £/MWh cannot be computed for that farm.

Sources

Companies HouseThe UK government registry where companies file their accounts and ownership details, most of which the public can read for free. more › accounts: Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Ltd (SC350248), year ended 31 March 2025; Moray Offshore Windfarm (East) Ltd (07101438), year ended 31 December 2025; Moray Offshore Windfarm (West) Ltd (10515140), year ended 31 December 2024; Caledonia Offshore Wind Farm Ltd (13844888), year ended 31 December 2025; Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission plc (SC213461), year ended 31 March 2026. Low Carbon Contracts CompanyThe government-owned company that manages and pays out Contracts for Difference, and publishes the daily figures. more › (LCCC) portfolio-status and actual-payments datasets. OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more ›, RIIO-3Ofgem's current five-year price control, which sets how much transmission companies can charge billpayers and what return they earn. more › Final Determinations (Finance Annex and SHET-specific determinations). SSE plc rating announcements (Moody's and S&P affirmations). SSEN Transmission's own regulatory financial performance report commentary. DESNZThe UK government department responsible for energy policy, including subsidy auctions and community fund guidance. more ›, CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › Allocation Round 8One of the periodic government auctions at which Contracts for Difference are awarded to competing projects. more › Government Response, July 2026. BEIS/DESNZ decommissioningThe legal duty to remove offshore energy infrastructure and restore the site once it stops being used, paid for by the operator. more › of offshore renewable energy installations guidance. Ofgem RIIO-3 Sector Specific Methodology Decision Finance Annex, 18 July 2024 (Totex Incentive MechanismAn Ofgem rule that splits unexpected cost overruns or savings on a project between the company and billpayers. more ›); Energy Voice, 13 Jan 2025; IJGlobal and Pinsent Masons announcements on the Beatrice and Moray West financings. Full citations with file and line are in research/RISK-AND-RETURN.md.