Scotland's renewables · the real cost

The real cost: estimated numbers from government figures

Paid for by the public: as electricity billpayers, and as taxpayers standing behind the loans.

This page covers Scotland's renewables, the grid built for them, and what billpayersAnyone who pays an electricity bill. Most of the costs on this site are recovered this way, not from taxes. more › have paid. Each figure carries a label saying where it comes from. Amounts are nominal with mixed price years unless stated.

Labels used: official = a government, regulator or audit-body document; filed = a company's own filed accounts; press = a company release or trade press; computed = exact arithmetic on published figures; estimate = this site's arithmetic or an assumption, shown; indicative = not yet final.

What billpayers have paid so far

Scotland's renewables, subsidies paid to date About £16bn estimate · money of the day · the UK-wide total is on The bill
Scottish renewable subsidiesAbout £15.6–16.5bnestimate
Separately: managing the grid bottleneck, all of Britain, 2018-19 to 2025-26About £9.1bnofficial (NAO series), summed here
Part of the headlineAmountClassBasis
Onshore wind and other non-offshore renewables, Scotland: Renewables Obligation (scheme years 9 to 23, with years 6 to 8 in the upper figure) and Contracts for DifferenceA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › to 22 Sep 2026£12.7–14.9bnestimateOfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more › ROCs issued × buy-out price, plus summed LCCCThe government-owned company that manages and pays out Contracts for Difference, and publishes the daily figures. more › payments. Nominal, as paid. The lower figure takes offshore ROCs out; the upper figure leaves them in and adds scheme years 6 to 8 at a proxy price.
Offshore wind, Scotland: CfD and Investment ContractAn early, CfD-equivalent support contract given to some wind farms, including Beatrice, before the CfD scheme fully started. more › payments (Beatrice, Moray East, Neart na Gaoithe) to 22 Sep 2026£1.6bnofficial (exact sum of LCCC rows: £1,641.52m)Nominal. Moray East's net payments are close to zero.
Offshore wind, Scotland: Renewables Obligation, five older farms, to 30 Sep 2026£1.2bnestimate, low confidence (£1,236.57m)Latest filed ROC counts held flat over the years of operation.
Sum of the three rows above£15.6–16.5bnestimateThe upper onshore figure already includes offshore ROCs, so the offshore RO row is not added to it. Items the research files list as left out would all raise this total: Feed-in Tariff, ROCs for 2002–07, and constraint paymentsMoney paid to a generator to switch off, or reduce output, because the grid cannot carry all the power it is producing. more › to onshore wind.
Constraint costs, Great Britain, 2018-19 to 2025-26£9.1bnofficial (NAO), summed hereNAO Figure 4: 0.56, 0.52, 0.65, 1.21, 1.04, 1.54, 1.65, 1.90 (£bn). The NAO text says 2024 prices; its figure note says 2023-24 prices. The series covers payments to wind farms to turn down and to gas stations to turn up. It is Britain-wide, not Scotland only.

Scotland's renewables now cost billpayers about £2.0bn a year

LineAmountClassPeriod
Scottish offshore wind: CfD and Investment Contract £345.01m, Renewables Obligation £146.36m, constraint payments £181.32mAbout £0.67bn (£672.69m)estimate; constraint part indicativeCalendar 2025
Other Scottish renewables: Renewables Obligation £1,324.73m plus CfD £46.37mAbout £1.37bn (£1,371.10m)estimateRO scheme year Apr 2024 to Mar 2025; CfD calendar 2025
Total, ScotlandAbout £2.0bn (£2,043.79m)estimatePeriods differ
Separately, all of Britain: managing the grid bottleneck£1.9bnofficial (NAO)2025-26, 2024 prices. Not added to the Scottish total: it covers every bottleneck in Britain, and the offshore line above includes £0.18bn of switch-off payments (calendar 2025, indicative Elexon data, all accepted bids) that are likely to overlap with it in part.

What it bought. Scotland had 17.9 GW of renewable capacity at the end of 2025 (17,890.2 MWUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more ›): onshore wind 10,489.7 MW, offshore wind 4,300.8 MW. official, DESNZ

Sources: research/SCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-4-RUNNING.md (section 0, tables 1.2 and 3.3), research/SCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-5-ONSHORE-OTHER.md (section 1 and Summary), FACT-SHEET.md fact 26 (NAO constraint series). See also the running subsidy meter.

What was built, and what is committed

This table adds up what the research files found for built projects and for committed or announced ones. Price years are mixed. Low and high are the lowest and highest figures found, not a forecast.

ItemLow, £bnHigh, £bnClassSource file
Built
Ten Scottish-water wind farms built, including their offshore transmission assets (nominal, 2007–2026)13.716.1filed, press, estimateSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-1-CAPEX
Five transmission projects energised: Beauly–Denny, Caithness–Moray, Western Link, Shetland Link 1, Kintyre–Hunterston (price years 2009–2020/21)3.14.1official, pressSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-2-TRANSMISSION
Onshore wind, whole Scottish fleet of 10,489.7 MWUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more ›, at DESNZThe UK government department responsible for energy policy, including subsidy auctions and community fund guidance. more › generic capital cost (2024 prices, central £17.8bn)13.624.4estimateSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-5-ONSHORE-OTHER
Stability and backup services in Scotland, contracted or priced (mixed price years)0.40.5official, estimateSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-3-STABILITY
Total built30.745.1estimateAbout £31–45bn
Committed or announced
Inch Cape wind farm, under construction3.53.7press, filedSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-1-CAPEX
Transmission under construction or approved: Eastern Green Link 1 and 2, Orkney link (low); SSEN's £22bn programme, Eastern Green Link 1 and SPT lines (high)5.724.9official, press, estimateSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-2-TRANSMISSION
Pumped hydro, announced with no final investment decision (Coire Glas, Cruachan II)0.02.5pressSCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-3-STABILITY
Total including committed39.976.2estimateAbout £40–76bn

Rows are rounded to one decimal; totals are summed before rounding. The onshore figure is an ESTIMATELabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › in 2024 prices: it values the whole fleet at the cost of a generic new plant commissioning in 2030, so it is a replacement-cost figure, not what was actually spent. It covers onshore wind only. The low and high transmission totals count some projects in different ways, as the source file explains, so the rows are not additive across columns. Three of the transmission lines run between Scotland and England and are counted at their whole cost: the Western Link (high column; the low column uses the 31.5% Scottish share OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more › states) and Eastern Green Links 1 and 2 (Eastern Green Link 1 in both columns, Eastern Green Link 2 in the low column). No saved source states a Scottish share for the two Eastern Green Links.

Already counted. The values of the offshore transmission assets (OFTOs), £1.8bn at final transfer values, are already inside the wind farm costs above. They are not added again.

Paid to the Crown Estate, not spent on building. Seabed option fees for ScotWind and INTOG were £810.2m received to 31 March 2025 (£755.1m plus £55.1m), and up to £1,016.9m if INTOG fees are paid in full. This is money paid to Crown Estate Scotland, listed separately and not in any total. filed, estimate for the sum

The rule that made it worse

"Connect and manage" let new generators connect before the grid was ready. These are the words of the 2010 impact assessment, the forecast made at the time, and the outturn since.

"The objective is to introduce grid access reforms that help to deliver energy security and a clear path to delivering the UK's renewable energy targets."

official · DECC impact assessment, 27 July 2010 · IA:27

"Increased constraint costsMoney paid to a generator to switch off, or reduce output, because the grid cannot carry all the power it is producing. more › occur due to increased generation capacity on the grid."

official · same document · IA:73

"The modelling assumes economic dispatch across the network and does not account for possible market power being exercised behind constrained boundaries, which was estimated to account for over half of constraints in 2008/09."

official · same document · IA:106

"National Grid expects these constraint costs to drop to nearly zero in 2017/18. The forecast of constraint costs after this date, and particularly in the early 2020s, depends on uncertain assumptions about the level of future generation coming forward and the date for completion of large reinforcement projects."

official · Ofgem, sixth monitoring report, 14 December 2015 · OM6:30–33

The same impact assessment also says the solution had to be set in the context of protecting consumers, including minimising costs (IA:30).

Forecast against outturn

MeasureForecast in 2010Outturn
The increment caused by the rule Central £195m present value over 2010–20, 2009 prices, about £18m a year. Range £160m to £992m. official, forecast Attributed to the rule by National Grid, reported by OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more ›: £4.4m (Apr 2011 to Aug 2012); £22.2m (Sep 2012 to Sep 2013); £69.4m (Oct 2013 to Sep 2014); £121.7m (Oct 2014 to Sep 2015). Not reported after 2015 in the files held. official
The total of all constraint costs Central £999m present value over 2010–20 (£804m under the alternative rule). Range £571m to £2,019m. official, forecast NAO thermal constraint costs by year, £bn: 0.56 (2018-19), 0.52, 0.65, 1.21, 1.04, 1.54, 1.65, 1.90 (2025-26). 2024 prices in the NAO text; 2023-24 prices in its figure note. Ofgem totals: £227.8m (2013/14), £365.3m (year to Sep 2015). official

Not like for like. The forecast is the increment over the alternative rule. The outturn series is the total. The forecast is a present value over 2010–20 in 2009 prices; the outturn is annual, in 2023-24 or 2024 prices. Only 2018-19 and 2019-20 fall inside the forecast window. The two rows can be read side by side but not subtracted.

The NAO says Ofgem forecast these costs would fall to zero by 2023-24 (NAO:1181). The sixth monitoring report held here says "nearly zero in 2017/18", expects the costs to start rising again from 2018/19 under its Gone Green scenario, and models them falling on completion of the Eastern HVDCHigh Voltage Direct Current: the technology used for long subsea electricity cables, including the Shetland link. more › link, which the model assumes for 2023/24 (OM6:425–443).

Sources: research/CONNECT-AND-MANAGE.md lines 27–35 (objective), 73–106 and 787–797 of the impact assessment (IA = assets.publishing.service.gov.uk, 253-improving-grid-access-ia.txt; forecast figures at IA:65, IA:787, IA:797, IA:1047); OM6 = Ofgem sixth monitoring report, lines 26 and 30; OM3:237, OM5:24 for earlier outturn; NAO = HC 589, 11 September 2026, lines 263, 995–998, 1181. Full line citations are in research/CONNECT-AND-MANAGE.md sections 2, 3, 5 and 6.

Six questions

What did billpayers get?

Scotland had 17.9 GW of renewable capacity at the end of 2025 and generated 39,023.2 GWhUnits of electrical power (MW) and energy (MWh, GWh): power is a rate, energy is power delivered over time. more › from it in 2025. official, DESNZ Moray East's contract paid slightly back to billpayersAnyone who pays an electricity bill. Most of the costs on this site are recovered this way, not from taxes. more › in 2025: a net −£0.94m. computed, LCCC data OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more › estimates that bringing the grid upgrades forward leaves a typical household about £30 a year better off than if they were not accelerated, even though the grid charge itself rises by £60. official, as reported by the NAO

Why so much foreign profit?

DividendsA payment a company makes to its shareholders out of its profits. more › to owners outside the UK come to £139.9m in the latest filed years. computed, from filed figures Of that, £104.2m is Moray East's whole 2025 dividend, because its three owners are all outside the UK. Beatrice paid an £84.1m dividend to its holding companyA company that exists mainly to own shares in another company, often sitting between a wind farm and its ultimate owners. more ›; the 25% share, £21.025m, corresponds to Red Rock Power (China) and the 17.5% share, £14.7175m, to TRIG, a Guernsey vehicle (shares computedLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more ›; owners as reportedA number taken directly from a company's own accounts or a regulator's own published document, not calculated or estimated by this site. more ›). The files record who holds the stakes. They do not give a reason for it. See money leaving the UK.

Who stands behind the loans?

For the grid, SSEN Transmission has £2.0bn of new facilities agreed in 2025/26, including an £800m UK National Wealth FundA UK government-owned investment body that can guarantee loans to infrastructure projects, backed by taxpayers. more › guarantee. That is the UK taxpayer's exposure, and it was undrawnA risk that only turns into an actual cost if something specific happens, such as a loan guarantee only being called on if the borrower defaults. more › at 31 March 2026. filed For the wind farms, under Moray East's 2018 financing Denmark's export credit agencyA foreign government body that guarantees loans to help its own country's exporters win contracts abroad. more › EKF was to guarantee part of the commercial banks' loan, and Japan's JBICJapan's state development bank, which lent directly to Moray East's construction financing. more › agreed to lend up to about £743m directly to it. Those are foreign state bodies, not UK taxpayers. press · JBIC release, 29 November 2018 See risk and return.

Why pay wind farms not to generate?

When more power is made behind a bottleneck in the grid than the lines can carry, the system operatorThe National Energy System Operator, the body that keeps Great Britain's electricity grid balanced minute by minute. more › pays the generators behind it to turn down (NAO, paragraph 1.9). Moray East's switch-off payments in 2025 were about £85.6m. indicative · Elexon indicative data, not the final settlement run Wind turn-down cost across Britain was £370m in 2024/25. official

Why start gas plants in the south at the same time?

The same instruction has a second half. Generators on the far side of the bottleneck are paid to turn up and replace the power, and in practice that has meant gas stations in England and Wales (NAO, paragraph 1.9). In 2024/25 gas turn-up cost £910m and wind turn-down £370m (DESNZThe UK government department responsible for energy policy, including subsidy auctions and community fund guidance. more ›, Reformed National Pricing Delivery Plan), so gas took about 71% of the two together and wind about 29%. Of all thermal constraint costsMoney paid to a generator to switch off, or reduce output, because the grid cannot carry all the power it is producing. more › that year, gas was "roughly two-thirds" in DESNZ's words, and 68% in NAO Figure 5. official, computed The NAO says the operatorThe company that owns or charters out a ship, as distinct from the client paying to use it for a particular job. more › pays a premium of around 30% over the day's wholesale price to turn gas up.

Why can't industry use the power we pay not to use?

The rules allow the operator to raise demand behind a bottleneck as well as cut generation (NAO, paragraph 1.9). Transmission demand charges in Northern Scotland were nil in 2025/26 (Zone 1; Zones 2 to 6 were also nil). official, NESO The government's own risk assessment of its work on connecting large new demand is Amber/Red (NAO, Figure 14). official The files hold no case of a named firm being refused the power.

Sources: research/SCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-5-ONSHORE-OTHER.md section 1; research/SCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-4-RUNNING.md sections 1.2 and 3.3 (Moray East £85,635,652.58, indicative run); research/UK-ENERGY-MESS-REVIEW.md claims 2 and 3 (71/29 split, £30 a year); DESNZ Reformed National Pricing Delivery Plan, 2026 (£910m, £370m); counter/leaving-uk.html and counter/risk.html (dividends, EKF, JBIC, National Wealth Fund); FACT-SHEET.md fact 28 (demand tariff); NAO lines 933–940, 954–957 and 1995–1996.

The national figure

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) says its Balanced Pathway needs extra investment of £26bn a year on average from 2025 to 2050, peaking at £46bn in 2029. It does not state the total. official, CCC The CCC's own costing sheet sums the investment to £670.1bn over the 26 years. official

The usual figure of about £110bn net cost assumes about £550bn of operating savings. The CCC's sheet sums those savings to £562.2bn and the net cost to £108.0bn. official Prices are 2023.

The cost to the taxpayer: £803bn

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the government's own fiscal watchdog, prices the cost of net zero to the public finances separately from the CCC's cost to the economy.

"Our latest central estimateLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › of the fiscal cost of climate change mitigation through to 2050-51 is £803 billion (21 per cent of GDP), or £30 billion a year on average, of which two-thirds can be attributed to lost receipts."

official · OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability report, July 2025, paragraph 1.32 · sources/crawl/obr.uk/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-July-2025.txt:932–934

Lost receipts are mainly fuel duty. The other third is extra public spending, mostly on homes, carbon removal and transport in the next decade (paragraph 4.31, lines 6469–6473). This is a different measure from the CCC's figures above, so the two are not added together.

Set side by sideFigureSource
UK greenhouse gas emissions, 2024373 million tonnesofficial DESNZThe UK government department responsible for energy policy, including subsidy auctions and community fund guidance. more ›, final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics, 5 Feb 2026
World greenhouse gas emissions, 202457.7 billion tonnesofficial UN Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report 2025 (copy saved from a UN-hosted mirror)
UK share of world emissions0.65%computed 373 ÷ 57,700. On the EU's EDGAR basis, 0.69%
UK share of all fossil CO2 emitted since 17504.3%secondary Our World in Data, from Global Carbon Project data
Public cost of net zero to 2050-51£803bnofficial OBR, as quoted above
UK households, 202529.0 millionofficial ONS, Families and households in the UK: 2025
Public cost per householdabout £27,700, or about £1,030 a yearcomputed £803bn ÷ 29.0m; £30bn a year ÷ 29.0m

The UK's share of today's emissions is under 1%. Its share of everything emitted since the industrial revolution is higher, at about 4%. Both are shown so the reader can weigh them. Sources: research/UK-SHARE-OF-EMISSIONS.md.

£30bn a year, set against public services

The OBR's average yearly public cost of net zero, £30bn, compared with what the government spent in 2025-26.

Public spending, 2025-26£bn£30bn as a share of it
Police31.695%
Defence65.446%
Education, UK total125.724%
Health, UK total257.512%
Central government debt interest96.931%
National and local roads14.2more than twice
New Hospital Programme, all 46 schemes, total to 2045-4660half the whole programme, every year

Sources: HM Treasury, Public spending statistics, July 2026, 2025-26 outturn (first estimate), Table 5.2; NAO, Update on the New Hospital Programme, January 2026. official Shares computed. The OBR figure is in 2024-25 prices and the spending in 2025-26 prices, so each share is about 3% too low. Two-thirds of the £30bn is tax no longer collected rather than money spent. Working in research/UK-SPENDING-COMPARATORS.md.

What other countries are doing

The seventeen largest or most relevant emitters, from the same sources for every country. The UK has cut its emissions the most since 2015 and is the only country found with an official estimate of the public cost of its own net zero. China, India, Indonesia, Russia and Iran are building new coal power.

CountryShare of world emissions, 2025Change since 2015Net zero target and statusClean energy investment, % of GDP, 2025Official estimate of public costNew coal power under construction, MW
China29.51%+22.3%2060, policy3.23%none206,361
United States11.11%−5.1%none (federal target revoked Jan 2025)1.36% *none0
India8.33%+36.8%2070, policy2.78% *none23,490
EU-275.78%−19.2%2050, in law1.84%none100
Russia4.75%+14.8%2060, policynot publishednone1,320
Indonesia2.51%+53.6%2060 or sooner, policynot publishednone3,140
Brazil2.41%+5.9%2050, policynot publishednone0
Iran2.07%+40.2%nonenot publishednone650
Japan1.96%−19.9%2050, in law1.74% with Korea *none0
Saudi Arabia1.56%+11.9%2060, pledge onlynot publishednonenot listed
Canada1.41%+0.9%2050, in lawnot publishednone0
South Korea1.29%−4.7%2050, in lawwith Japan, abovenone0
Germany1.22%−26.8%2045, in lawinside EUnone0
Australia1.07%−3.1%2050, in lawnot publishednone0
France0.70%−18.4%2050, in lawinside EUscenario only0
United Kingdom0.69%−26.9%2050, in lawnot published£803bn, 21% of GDP0
Norway0.10%−14.2%2050 low-emission society, in lawnot publishednonenot listed

Emissions: EU Joint Research Centre, EDGAR 2026 report official. Net zero status: national laws and strategies, several read from Climate Policy Radar copies because the originals blocked access. Clean energy investment: IEA World Energy Investment 2025 dollar estimates for China and the EU official; dollar figures for the US, India and Japan with Korea, marked *, are read from the IEA's charts estimate. Each % of GDP is this site's division of those dollars by World Bank GDP estimate. The IEA does not publish a UK figure, so the UK cannot be ranked on that column. Public cost: UK from the OBR; France has a scenario, not a single figure; no other country's was found. Coal: Global Energy Monitor, May 2026. Working in research/COUNTRY-CLIMATE-SPEND.md.

Savings test: partly supported

What would be owed in 2050

estimate · this site's arithmetic on the CCC's own investment figures

Savings arriveFinanced at 3.5%Financed at 5%Financed at 7%
All savings£377bn£563bn£910bn
Half£780bn£1,038bn£1,509bn
None£1,182bn£1,513bn£2,108bn

Owed in 2050 if the investment is financed and the savings arrive. Not all of it is borrowed, since households pay some in cash. The value of the assets is not counted. The figures are UK-wide. Method: each year from 2025 to 2050, the CCC’s own extra capital spend is added and its forecast net operating saving (all, half or none) is taken off; the balance carries interest at the rate shown. Year-by-year figures from the CCC costing data, sheet “Whole economy charts”, rows 165 and 166. Working in research/NETZERO-DEBT-2050.md.

"The government also taxes carbon more directly through environmental levies and taxes."

official · OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability report, July 2025, paragraph 4.28 · sources/crawl/obr.uk/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-July-2025.txt:6394

The OBR's next sentence puts receipts lost from these taxes at £2.8bn (0.06% of GDP) by 2050-51, on the CCC's balanced pathway.

Sources: research/CCC-SAVINGS-TEST.md (sections 0 and Q3 to Q5, and the verdict); CCC Seventh Carbon Budget (CCC7 lines 4626, 4631, 4903); OBR25 lines 6346–6347.

What has not been published

The full list is on the missing figures page.

Sources

Project research files, compiled 4 October 2026: research/SCOT-OFFSHORE-COST-1-CAPEX.md, -2-TRANSMISSION.md, -3-STABILITY.md, -4-RUNNING.md and -5-ONSHORE-OTHER.md; research/CONNECT-AND-MANAGE.md; research/CCC-SAVINGS-TEST.md; research/UK-ENERGY-MESS-REVIEW.md; research/SOVEREIGN-BRIEFING-REVIEW.md (addenda of 16 September 2026); research/RISK-AND-RETURN.md; FACT-SHEET.md fact 26. PrimaryLabels on the evidence register showing how strong a figure's source is: an official document, a press report, arithmetic, or an estimate. more › sources behind them: DESNZThe UK government department responsible for energy policy, including subsidy auctions and community fund guidance. more › Regional Renewable Statistics, 29 September 2026; DESNZ Electricity Generation Costs 2025, January 2026, updated 18 March 2026; OfgemThe UK government regulator for gas and electricity, which sets how much network companies can charge billpayers. more › Renewables Obligation Annual Report, scheme year 23, dataset, March 2026; Low Carbon Contracts CompanyThe government-owned company that manages and pays out Contracts for Difference, and publishes the daily figures. more › actual CfDA government contract that tops up a wind farm's income when the market price is low, and claws money back when it is high. more › generation data to 22 September 2026; Elexon indicative balancing cashflows for 2025; National Audit Office, Upgrading the electricity transmission network (HC 589), 11 September 2026; DECC impact assessment URN 10/899 and Government Response URN 10D/723, 27 July 2010; Ofgem connect and manage monitoring reports 2011 to 2015 (sixth report 14 December 2015); CCC Seventh Carbon Budget, February 2025, and its costing data, May 2025; OBR Fiscal risks and sustainability report, July 2025; Ofgem price cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026; Crown Estate Scotland Annual Report to 31 March 2025; filed company accounts for the wind farms. Full file:line citations are in the project's research files. Related pages: who pays, risk and return, money leaving the UK, the evidence register.